The wave might just be becoming the Tsunami of 2006

This poll, by James Carvill, Stan Greenberg and Ana Iparraguirre. and it is very interesting.

http://democracycorps.com/reports/analyses/Democracy_Corps_October_13_2006_Memo.pdf

It is PDF format, but worth the read.

This is their cover letter:

RE: MELTDOWN

Report on the Special Survey in 49 Republican-Held Seats
We do not often get to write such a report — changes so large over such
a short period that they certainly portend a whole new playing field for the
November election. This survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted in only
Republican-held seats, yet Democrats are ahead by 4 points overall in the named congressional vote (49 to 45 percent); indeed, they are ahead by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in the bottom tier of presumably safest seats.

This vote represents a dramatic change in the state of the race over the
last two weeks. The end of the Congress — with the increased pessimism and
anger about Iraq and the Foley scandal and subsequent partisan brawl — has
moved voters to shift their assessments of the parties and their votes. The 1994
election broke at the end; this one just broke. The shift is evident on every
indicator — party, Bush, war, intensity and morale.

The shift this poll shows in the Republican held seats reflects a dramatic
change nationally in the generic congressional ballot. On Monday, Democracy
Corps will release a report that shows that a 5-point swing on average to the
Democrats in the ten media polls conducted in October. The Democratic vote,
stuck at 49 percent for months, suddenly jumped to 53 percent in the last two
weeks.

We highlight these findings this Friday afternoon because Democrats and
progressives need to think radically differently about the 2006 battle — in this
three-week window. In 1994, the race shifted dramatically at the end, but
Democrats have a chance to consolidate gains large enough to affect
congressional control over this decade. That means allocating resources and
finding new resources to lock in the gains, as the Republicans move their much
greater resources up to the new barricades.

In addition, the meltdown was produced by a collapse in confidence in Republicans without a comparable surge for the Democrats. After flat-lining for a year, the Democrats have edged up but their favorability (warm responses) is only 2 points higher than the Republicans. Amidst all the mudslinging, Democrats can consolidate and expand these gains if voters will hear what Democrats want to do with a new majority — work with both parties and the President to take a new direction in Iraq and wage a better war on terrorism, work to lower drug and gas costs, and to achieve energy independence.

Why is this meltdown happening?

• Iraq. The new belief — and by very big number — that the U.S. is losing ground in Iraq, and the thinking that it is making us less secure, has turned voters against the Republicans.

• The President has tried to nationalize the election around national security, but instead, he has nationalized the Iraq war — which is now clearly dominant as a reason for voting.

• Individual Republican incumbents have suddenly lost their incumbent protection and are now fully associated with the Congress that people hate. Drop in incumbent job approvals is the biggest factor opening up the playing field.

• The Congress is seen as a bickering mess that is getting nothing done for people. Disapproval hits new highs.

• Intensity is tilting the playing field: strong disapproval of Bush is double strong approval; those voting Democratic are now 16 points more likely to be enthusiastic about election than Republican voters.

The result is the lowest scores in more than a decade for the Republicans and the Congress; a president in people’s faces who is more unpopular than any president in memory, a likely electorate even more Democratic than the broad electorate; and an across the board shift in the vote across Republican districts.

This meltdown is real but given its timing, an immense opportunity for Democrats to move
strategically to consolidate gains at an unimagined level.

the survey;

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_10-12_2006_CD_Survey.pdf

the graphs;

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/analyses/Democracy_Corps_October_13_2006_Graphs.pdf

the teirs;

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/analyses/Democracy_Corps_October_13_2006_Tiers.pdf

It takes time to look at it all, but it is inspiring to think that they got results like this in RED Districts. If what they say is TRUE, November might be a bigger blow out than conventional wisdom is allowing right now. They polled repug districts and democrats did better than repugs in many instances. The wave might just be becoming the Tsunami of 2006, one can HOPE beyond hope this year.